On May 25th, North Korea tested a nuclear bomb which was estimated to be the same destructive force as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in World War II. In addition to the nuclear test, North Korea tested short range missiles which can potentially be used to deliver a nuclear attack on South Korea or Japan and involve the U.S. in the battle. The world must react with speed and solidarity in order to keep North Korea from embroiling the region, and even world, in conflict.
According to a report in The Economist, this nuclear test may be the result of internal changes in the influence of hardliners from the armed forces. One of these hardliners, Kim Yong-chol, is advocating the end of cooperation and contact with South Korea and further isolating the North. This increase of hardliner influence is coming with the blessing of Kim Jong-Il who may have suffered a stroke last year. Due to the extreme difficulty in determining the internal politics of North Korea, much is speculation.
While on an international level, North Korea’s actions appear to be irrational, on a state or domestic level, this saber rattling has a very rational goal. These tests are an attempt to increase the internal control of the communist regime in North Korea. According to Wendy R. Sherman, who coordinated North Korea policy during the Clinton administration, “they care about external matters only insofar as it helps ensure the survival of the regime.” These tests are likely designed to appeal to the nationalist sentiment of the North Korean people and the media there is heaping of praise on the tests and the government. Maintaining their power is a huge motivator for the ruling class in North Korea. They are keeping their country in effectively the 17th century while living a life of luxury.
Their struggle to maintain power causes actions that baffle the rest of the world community. It provokes responses from the outside world that damage the economy and well being of the country as a whole. In the game of international relations, it can be counted on to make the play that will ensure the survival of the regime, not what is best for the country as a whole. Its population is living in abject poverty and incentives do not appear to have had any affect on how North Korea conducts its international business.
Since maintaining power is the motivator for North Korea, taking actions that will prolong, or threaten, the regime may be the only way to get compliance from North Korea. According to a New York Times article, “North Korea is not likely to be receptive to incentives. And it may have concluded that having nuclear weapons is a necessity for its own preservation.” Possessing nuclear weapons is the regime’s trump card in fending off potential threats to the regime. Further economic sanctions may be the only peaceful step toward getting North Korea to comply and give up its weapons. However, because of the importance they have placed on weapons, it is highly unlikely that they will give these up without a fight. Yet, that does not mean that war cannot be avoided.
The key in the world response may lie in China. Of the limited international trade with North Korea, much of it is with China or flows through China. China is the closest thing to an ally that North Korea has. The U.S. can use its relationship with China to garner support in these sanctions. In the past, North Korea has ignored U.N. resolutions and the sanctions have not been strictly enforced, but with China’s cooperation, these can be effective. Creating internal pressure via sanctions is the most effective, and safest, route to get the North Koreans to change.
Creating an economic situation where maintaining the regime in its current form is untenable is the only hope for North Korea to have a permanent change – similar to the situation in the Soviet Union. By quickly implementing strong and solid sanctions and preventing the North Korean regime from acquiring more nuclear weapons material, North Korea could step down its threatening actions. Eventually, with a build up in internal pressures, the North Korean regime can begin to change and open the society in a process that will take many years.
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