Goodbye Nuclear Weapons, See You in Iran!

Yesterday, the United Nations Security Council, with President Obama as its chairman, voted to strengthen the restrictions on nuclear technology, making it more difficult to convert peaceful applications into weapons programs.  This, however, is still a matter of enforcement which has been a persistent problem for the United Nations in the past; its coffee and doughnut budget has been exceeded for every year of its existence.  Iran is at the heart of this matter, even though President Obama was very general in his comments during the meeting, but glared at Mahmoud Ahmadinejad because "he knows what he did." 

No Missile Shield for You!

Today, the U.S. announced that it is scrapping the Bush era missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic and replacing it with a different system to first be deployed aboard ships and potentially then in Southern Europe.  This move will likely appeal to Russia who had vehemently opposed the Bush plan and liked to do some sabre rattling about it.  There is no word on whether or not this move was accompanied by a large shipment of vodka and beets to St. Petersburg. 

Graveyard of Empires: Well, Crap...

In a recent speech to foreign policy experts, former U.S. national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, warned that if the U.S. does not halt the Taliban insurgency, things in Afghanistan will quickly go pear shaped.  Well, shit.  While a laudable goal of installing credible institutions and making a real, functioning country, is one that is likely worth pursuing, it will be a difficult road.  For instance, it only took 300 special forces troops to bring down the Taliban in 2001.  That just goes to show that the government there had tenuous control at best and the amount of man power needed to eliminate an insurgency will be very high.

Kyrgyzstan to Allow Use of Air Base

In a reversal of its previous decision, Kyrgyzstan is going to allow the use of an air base to support the NATO mission in Afghanistan.  Previously, Kyrgyzstan had given the U.S. six months to get out, but many believe that this was just a move to increase the rent that the U.S. currently pays.  Annually, the U.S. pays about $17.4M in rent and another $150M in aid.  While the rent will be increased, this is likely to be a deal of "bases for vowels." 

U.S. Mulls Intercepting N. Korea Shipping; Seeks More Kimchi

The Obama administration is considering in effect a blockade of North Korea.  In a report from the New York Times, Secretary of State Clinton indicated that this option was still on the table.  Shipping that is suspected of containing materials used in the manufacture of nuclear weapons would be confiscated.  (We here at Puggling believe this is what is referred to as "kimchi.")  The hope is that China would assist the United States in this effort, allowing the use of its ports and airfields.  However, there has been no indication so far that China would be willing to help.

This effort would likely be highly confrontational to North Korea which has already threatened retaliation if such actions are taken.  (N. Korea takes its "kimchi" seriously.)  Currently, its Taepodong-2 missile can potentially threaten South Korea and Japan and North Korea has one of the largest militaries in the world.  These threats underline how seriously North Korea wishes to become a nuclear power.


Stopping the arms trade, which is one of the most profitable enterprises in North Korea, would cripple its already ailing economy.  (The dark area on the map is North Korea.  The lone light is from Kim Jong-Il's night light.  No word on his blankie.)  Analysts suspect that North Korea pumps up to 40% of its GDP into military efforts, leaving its population in abject poverty. 

Obama's Muslim Outreach: A Step in the Right Direction

Today, President Obama begins his tour of the Middle East in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.  This tour is in part designed to improve America's image in the region, which as the release of a new audio tape by Osama bin Laden shows is still needed.  However, the mere fact that the President is making the effort to have a dialog with the Muslim world goes a long way towards improving relations with the U.S.  On Thursday, Mr Obama is expected to deliver an address in Cairo, one that he promised to make during his campaign last year.  

But that is not to say that there isn't a large gap to overcome.  One of the primary issues facing Mr Obama is the issue of Israeli settlements which are one of the sticking points in the Isreali-Palestinean peace process.  The Arab community wants a statement from the U.S. on these settlements which can potentially drive a wedge between the U.S. and Israel, a long time ally.  Walking this balance will be a difficult path, but opening this dialog is the first step down the right direction.

A Democratic End in Pakistan and Afghanistan?

We here at Puggling have been reading Fareed Zakaria's The Future of Freedom, and have been pondering Afghanistand and Pakistan at the same time and how these two are related.  Zakaria maintains in one section of the book that there is a strong correlation between per capita GDP and democratic institutions surviving.  There is a threshold of about $1,500 a year in order for democracy to have a chance and once the per capita GDP reaches $6,000 democracy becomes "immortal."  Naturally, these aren't the only things necessary for democracy.  Events happening in the country play a huge role as well, but without the economic means, democracy is at a huge disadvantage.

In Afghanistan the per capita GDP is $800 which is only half of what is necessary while Pakistan's is approximately $2,600.  This suggests that along with a counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan, the U.S. must focus on the economic development.  The security of the population is still extremely important and the change to focus more on an insurgency by appointing a new general in Afghanistan demonstrates this.  But what do you do before you get to the economic tipping point?  Democracy is not a viable option at this point (and the current government of Afghanistan could hardly qualify as a democracy).  Using authoritarian means to establish institutions and the rule of law is the right track.  Democracy relies on these to keep order and starting out a fledgeling democracy without these is asking for failure.  Once these have been established, along with the economic pillar, Afghanistan has a chance. 

Pakistan is a prime example of how the economic part of the equation is not enough.  While they have the economic potential, their institutions are lacking.  The only real institution in Pakistan is the military which does not help with rule of law or other governmental expectations and the Taliban insurgency is a symptom of this.  The frustration with the Pakistani government is allowing the Taliban to thrive.  Encouraging institutional development (along with stopping the Taliban) is the long term path forward in Pakistan.

Al Qaeda: Tenacious Bastards Aren't They?

In a report from the New York Times, the strife in Pakistan is helping Al Qaeda in its recruitment.  The conflict in Pakistan has raised the hopes that there will be a "jihadist takeover of the region," which attracts more recruits.  This recruitment effort is replacing the numbers lost due to the airstrikes in the area which so far this year number 16 in comparison to 36 total in 2008.

While U.S. intelligence sources suggest that a Taliban takeover of Pakistan is unlikely due to the strength of the Pakistani army, Al Qaeda is smelling blood in the water.  Al Qaeda has changed its tactics to a more localized focus.  They are being run by small, well-organized groups which are working to destabilize Pakistan and create a feeling of insecurity.  The fighting is in the Buner and Swat regions of Pakistan, which are close to the capitol of Islamabad.

The destabilizing effect of open conflict in the region is still a serious concern.  An unstable Pakistan is a scary thought.  They have a large army and nuclear weapons.  Their borders are porous and a haven for Al Qaeda and the Taliban.  Pakistan must be a top priority.  Pakistan is already bordering on being a failed state and a prolonged conflict near the capitol would push it over the edge.

So Let Me Get This Straight....

In a recent interview with Sean "The Manatee" Hannity, Dick Cheney attempted to legitimize the use of torture.  He claimed that there are memos out there showing that we gained valuable intelligence from these techniques.  Undoubtably there are memos out there with some scrap of intelligence that was gained.  However, there are other techniques which can be used without torture.  There is an implication that coercive methods helped stop a radiological plot involving Jose Padilla (the American implicated in Al Qaeda activities), but the real danger of an actual "dirty bomb" is minimal due to the short half life of most of the possible contaminants. 

Also, the use of torture at Abu Gharaib has been used as a recruitment tool for terrorists and removed America from the moral high ground which has been a central component of U.S. foreign policy since Woodrow Wilson.  The United States has seen itself as that "City on the Hill," a shining example of how to behave on the world stage.  We view the world through a moral lens, which has often been used to justify involvement in conflicts around the globe.  The United States prosecuted torture as war crimes after World War II.  We agreed to the Geneva Conventions which ban the use of torture.  The issue is not whether or not torture works, but really can the United States participate in this and remain a world leader.  And the answer is no.