U.S. Mulls Intercepting N. Korea Shipping; Seeks More Kimchi

The Obama administration is considering in effect a blockade of North Korea.  In a report from the New York Times, Secretary of State Clinton indicated that this option was still on the table.  Shipping that is suspected of containing materials used in the manufacture of nuclear weapons would be confiscated.  (We here at Puggling believe this is what is referred to as "kimchi.")  The hope is that China would assist the United States in this effort, allowing the use of its ports and airfields.  However, there has been no indication so far that China would be willing to help.

This effort would likely be highly confrontational to North Korea which has already threatened retaliation if such actions are taken.  (N. Korea takes its "kimchi" seriously.)  Currently, its Taepodong-2 missile can potentially threaten South Korea and Japan and North Korea has one of the largest militaries in the world.  These threats underline how seriously North Korea wishes to become a nuclear power.


Stopping the arms trade, which is one of the most profitable enterprises in North Korea, would cripple its already ailing economy.  (The dark area on the map is North Korea.  The lone light is from Kim Jong-Il's night light.  No word on his blankie.)  Analysts suspect that North Korea pumps up to 40% of its GDP into military efforts, leaving its population in abject poverty. 

Rice and Ray-Bans: North Korea Redux

 On May 25th, North Korea tested a nuclear bomb which was estimated to be the same destructive force as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in World War II.  In addition to the nuclear test, North Korea tested short range missiles which can potentially be used to deliver a nuclear attack on South Korea or Japan and involve the U.S. in the battle.  The world must react with speed and solidarity in order to keep North Korea from embroiling the region, and even world, in conflict.

According to a report in The Economist, this nuclear test may be the result of internal changes in the influence of hardliners from the armed forces.  One of these hardliners, Kim Yong-chol, is advocating the end of cooperation and contact with South Korea and further isolating the North.  This increase of hardliner influence is coming with the blessing of Kim Jong-Il who may have suffered a stroke last year.  Due to the extreme difficulty in determining the internal politics of North Korea, much is speculation.

While on an international level, North Korea’s actions appear to be irrational, on a state or domestic level, this saber rattling has a very rational goal.  These tests are an attempt to increase the internal control of the communist regime in North Korea.  According to Wendy R. Sherman, who coordinated North Korea policy during the Clinton administration, “they care about external matters only insofar as it helps ensure the survival of the regime.”  These tests are likely designed to appeal to the nationalist sentiment of the North Korean people and the media there is heaping of praise on the tests and the government.  Maintaining their power is a huge motivator for the ruling class in North Korea.  They are keeping their country in effectively the 17th century while living a life of luxury.

Their struggle to maintain power causes actions that baffle the rest of the world community.  It provokes responses from the outside world that damage the economy and well being of the country as a whole.  In the game of international relations, it can be counted on to make the play that will ensure the survival of the regime, not what is best for the country as a whole.  Its population is living in abject poverty and incentives do not appear to have had any affect on how North Korea conducts its international business.

Since maintaining power is the motivator for North Korea, taking actions that will prolong, or threaten, the regime may be the only way to get compliance from North Korea.  According to a New York Times article, “North Korea is not likely to be receptive to incentives. And it may have concluded that having nuclear weapons is a necessity for its own preservation.”  Possessing nuclear weapons is the regime’s trump card in fending off potential threats to the regime.  Further economic sanctions may be the only peaceful step toward getting North Korea to comply and give up its weapons.  However, because of the importance they have placed on weapons, it is highly unlikely that they will give these up without a fight.  Yet, that does not mean that war cannot be avoided.

The key in the world response may lie in China.  Of the limited international trade with North Korea, much of it is with China or flows through China.  China is the closest thing to an ally that North Korea has.  The U.S. can use its relationship with China to garner support in these sanctions.  In the past, North Korea has ignored U.N. resolutions and the sanctions have not been strictly enforced, but with China’s cooperation, these can be effective.  Creating internal pressure via sanctions is the most effective, and safest, route to get the North Koreans to change.

Creating an economic situation where maintaining the regime in its current form is untenable is the only hope for North Korea to have a permanent change – similar to the situation in the Soviet Union.  By quickly implementing strong and solid sanctions and preventing the North Korean regime from acquiring more nuclear weapons material, North Korea could step down its threatening actions.  Eventually, with a build up in internal pressures, the North Korean regime can begin to change and open the society in a process that will take many years.

No Nukes is Good Nukes?

With the recent test launching of a Taepodong-2 intercontinental ballistic missile in North Korea and the recent statements by the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad about welcoming talks with the United States, one begins to wonder why countries pursue nuclear weapons technology. Nuclear weapons have been around for over sixty years and there are only eight countries with confirmed nuclear weapons (nine when you include Israel which does not acknowledge its weapons). During their lifespan, the main uses of nuclear weapons have been as a deterrent or as a bargaining chip. Throughout the Cold War, both the United States and the Soviet Union had enough nuclear weapons to ensure that no matter what happened, each could destroy the other (See: Destruction, Mutually Assured).

Currently, Iran and North Korea are both pursuing nuclear technology (North Korea tested a bomb in 2006 and Iran maintains that its research is peaceful). North Korea has been funneling its very scarce resources toward advancing its nuclear program even though it is dependent on foreign aid. While it is such an economically poor country, why divert efforts toward a struggling nuclear program? One large reason is internal politics. In order to keep control, the regime is trying to maintain very high nationalist sentiments. If their country is internally perceived as among the world leaders in military power, North Koreans will think more highly of their government. While most consider the rocket test a failure (stages two and three failed and the missile did not reach orbit and subsequently fell into the ocean), the North Korean press was excitedly proclaiming that this was a great success. While failing to raise the living standards of its people, the government is creating positive spin in its own press.

Another reason for the test, as advocated by Victor Cha in his article "Pyongbang!", is that Kim Jong Il is in failing health and the the ruling class is stirring up trouble due to the "political fluidity within Pyongyang." Both of these factors are likely playing off of one another in a nasty feedback loop. Due to Kim's failing health, the ruling class is setting itself up for the eventual change in leadership as well as keeping internal pressures at bay.

North Korea is also setting itself up to reap rewards in the international arena by engaging in talks. In general, according to Henry Kissenger's book Diplomacy, talks are a favorite tool used by diplomats to buy time. While North Korea is engaged in talks, the longer it has to negotiate, the stronger its position will be as it will have advanced its nuclear project and it will be more difficult for other nations to take action against it which is why even though its test was a failure, it still was a success for North Korea.