One Quarter of the Afghan Vote Was Cast by Pack of Wild Monkeys; Situation Dire

Well, Afghanistan, you've got a mess on your hands.  A lot of mess.  A quarter of your votes could be tainted!  That's Chicago bad.  The good/bad news is that this isn't the worst of your problems.  The top general in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, has essentially stated that the situation is dire in the remote nation. 

Graveyard of Empires: Well, Crap...

In a recent speech to foreign policy experts, former U.S. national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, warned that if the U.S. does not halt the Taliban insurgency, things in Afghanistan will quickly go pear shaped.  Well, shit.  While a laudable goal of installing credible institutions and making a real, functioning country, is one that is likely worth pursuing, it will be a difficult road.  For instance, it only took 300 special forces troops to bring down the Taliban in 2001.  That just goes to show that the government there had tenuous control at best and the amount of man power needed to eliminate an insurgency will be very high.

A Democratic End in Pakistan and Afghanistan?

We here at Puggling have been reading Fareed Zakaria's The Future of Freedom, and have been pondering Afghanistand and Pakistan at the same time and how these two are related.  Zakaria maintains in one section of the book that there is a strong correlation between per capita GDP and democratic institutions surviving.  There is a threshold of about $1,500 a year in order for democracy to have a chance and once the per capita GDP reaches $6,000 democracy becomes "immortal."  Naturally, these aren't the only things necessary for democracy.  Events happening in the country play a huge role as well, but without the economic means, democracy is at a huge disadvantage.

In Afghanistan the per capita GDP is $800 which is only half of what is necessary while Pakistan's is approximately $2,600.  This suggests that along with a counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan, the U.S. must focus on the economic development.  The security of the population is still extremely important and the change to focus more on an insurgency by appointing a new general in Afghanistan demonstrates this.  But what do you do before you get to the economic tipping point?  Democracy is not a viable option at this point (and the current government of Afghanistan could hardly qualify as a democracy).  Using authoritarian means to establish institutions and the rule of law is the right track.  Democracy relies on these to keep order and starting out a fledgeling democracy without these is asking for failure.  Once these have been established, along with the economic pillar, Afghanistan has a chance. 

Pakistan is a prime example of how the economic part of the equation is not enough.  While they have the economic potential, their institutions are lacking.  The only real institution in Pakistan is the military which does not help with rule of law or other governmental expectations and the Taliban insurgency is a symptom of this.  The frustration with the Pakistani government is allowing the Taliban to thrive.  Encouraging institutional development (along with stopping the Taliban) is the long term path forward in Pakistan.

Thoughts on Iran and Falafel

Recently, we here at Puggling were wondering: just what all is involved with an improved relationship with Iran?  First, our thoughts went to better falafel in the U.S.  But other than that, what is to be gained?  Well, Iran is smack dab in the middle of both Iraq and Afghanistan.  Perfectly situated to help the stability of both countries. 

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For Iraq, the militias which have been causing trouble are funded and supplied by Iran.  According to The Economist, after the Iraqi army with help from British forces "many of the militia leaders fled to Iran, which had been supplying them with weapons, especially Katyusha rockets."  Iran and Iraq do not like each other.  Period.  They fought a nasty war in the 80's and they differ religiously as well.  Iran is not necessarily helping the militias to thwart U.S. interests, but that is a nice bonus.  If Iran withdraws its support of these militias, stability after the U.S. leaves is a greater probability.  In Basra alone:

According to a Western police adviser, some 900 of the murders that took place in 2006, in a city of 1.7m people, remain unsolved to this day. The murder rate that year was some 40 times higher than Britain’s. In 2007 the figure was probably worse. Some say half of Basra’s 20,000-strong police force had been infiltrated by the militias. Many kidnappings and murders were committed by people in police uniforms. A sheikh of the al-Abadi tribe says the militias killed about 10,000 Basrawis during their two years’ reign.  (The Economist)

 These militias are big perpetrators of the crimes that are causing instability and Iran can sweep their legs out from under them.

With respect to Afghanistan, Iran can help provide access to the regions where there are limited roads.  It is an issue when aid and supplies cannot get to their destinations.  Also, Iran undoubtably has some experience in dealing with the Taliban and the tribal regions which border it.  The fractured and tribal nature of Afghanistan hinders development and the creation of a national government.  Our hopes though remain on falafel...