A Democratic End in Pakistan and Afghanistan?

We here at Puggling have been reading Fareed Zakaria's The Future of Freedom, and have been pondering Afghanistand and Pakistan at the same time and how these two are related.  Zakaria maintains in one section of the book that there is a strong correlation between per capita GDP and democratic institutions surviving.  There is a threshold of about $1,500 a year in order for democracy to have a chance and once the per capita GDP reaches $6,000 democracy becomes "immortal."  Naturally, these aren't the only things necessary for democracy.  Events happening in the country play a huge role as well, but without the economic means, democracy is at a huge disadvantage.

In Afghanistan the per capita GDP is $800 which is only half of what is necessary while Pakistan's is approximately $2,600.  This suggests that along with a counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan, the U.S. must focus on the economic development.  The security of the population is still extremely important and the change to focus more on an insurgency by appointing a new general in Afghanistan demonstrates this.  But what do you do before you get to the economic tipping point?  Democracy is not a viable option at this point (and the current government of Afghanistan could hardly qualify as a democracy).  Using authoritarian means to establish institutions and the rule of law is the right track.  Democracy relies on these to keep order and starting out a fledgeling democracy without these is asking for failure.  Once these have been established, along with the economic pillar, Afghanistan has a chance. 

Pakistan is a prime example of how the economic part of the equation is not enough.  While they have the economic potential, their institutions are lacking.  The only real institution in Pakistan is the military which does not help with rule of law or other governmental expectations and the Taliban insurgency is a symptom of this.  The frustration with the Pakistani government is allowing the Taliban to thrive.  Encouraging institutional development (along with stopping the Taliban) is the long term path forward in Pakistan.