Graveyard of Empires: Well, Crap...

In a recent speech to foreign policy experts, former U.S. national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, warned that if the U.S. does not halt the Taliban insurgency, things in Afghanistan will quickly go pear shaped.  Well, shit.  While a laudable goal of installing credible institutions and making a real, functioning country, is one that is likely worth pursuing, it will be a difficult road.  For instance, it only took 300 special forces troops to bring down the Taliban in 2001.  That just goes to show that the government there had tenuous control at best and the amount of man power needed to eliminate an insurgency will be very high.



Most likely, though, non-combat and civilian efforts will do the most good.  In a recent poll, security was listed as the number one concern of Afghans, but the economy and infrastructure combined out rank security.  Improving the infrastructure and improving the economy will also help in the security front, as more people feel they have options and can trust the institutions, the less likely they are to become radicalized and militant.  The belief in a brighter future goes a long way in helping all sorts of problems.

 However, the recent election debacle in Afghanistan throws yet another wrinkle into the mix.  There have been widespread allegations of voter fraud and the UN backed commission serving as arbiter for the election has ordered a recount of 10% of the votes in suspect areas.  This could put President Hamid Karzai below the 50% threshold for avoiding a runoff.

While fraud in an election is definitely a negative, showing that something is being done about it is better than letting it go on without any acknowledgement of it (see: Iran, Going Apeshit).  By being seen to address the fraud allegations, people can begin to trust in their government.  The process, in Afghanistan, is in many respects more important than who wins.