No Nukes is Good Nukes?

With the recent test launching of a Taepodong-2 intercontinental ballistic missile in North Korea and the recent statements by the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad about welcoming talks with the United States, one begins to wonder why countries pursue nuclear weapons technology. Nuclear weapons have been around for over sixty years and there are only eight countries with confirmed nuclear weapons (nine when you include Israel which does not acknowledge its weapons). During their lifespan, the main uses of nuclear weapons have been as a deterrent or as a bargaining chip. Throughout the Cold War, both the United States and the Soviet Union had enough nuclear weapons to ensure that no matter what happened, each could destroy the other (See: Destruction, Mutually Assured).

Currently, Iran and North Korea are both pursuing nuclear technology (North Korea tested a bomb in 2006 and Iran maintains that its research is peaceful). North Korea has been funneling its very scarce resources toward advancing its nuclear program even though it is dependent on foreign aid. While it is such an economically poor country, why divert efforts toward a struggling nuclear program? One large reason is internal politics. In order to keep control, the regime is trying to maintain very high nationalist sentiments. If their country is internally perceived as among the world leaders in military power, North Koreans will think more highly of their government. While most consider the rocket test a failure (stages two and three failed and the missile did not reach orbit and subsequently fell into the ocean), the North Korean press was excitedly proclaiming that this was a great success. While failing to raise the living standards of its people, the government is creating positive spin in its own press.

Another reason for the test, as advocated by Victor Cha in his article "Pyongbang!", is that Kim Jong Il is in failing health and the the ruling class is stirring up trouble due to the "political fluidity within Pyongyang." Both of these factors are likely playing off of one another in a nasty feedback loop. Due to Kim's failing health, the ruling class is setting itself up for the eventual change in leadership as well as keeping internal pressures at bay.

North Korea is also setting itself up to reap rewards in the international arena by engaging in talks. In general, according to Henry Kissenger's book Diplomacy, talks are a favorite tool used by diplomats to buy time. While North Korea is engaged in talks, the longer it has to negotiate, the stronger its position will be as it will have advanced its nuclear project and it will be more difficult for other nations to take action against it which is why even though its test was a failure, it still was a success for North Korea.