Sarah Palin is a polarizing person. Many Americans know this. However, she appears not to. She has recently set up a political action committee, SarahPAC, in an apparent move towards presidential candidacy in 2012. In a USA Today/Gallup poll right after the election (the latest data we could find), Sarah Palin had an 83% favorable rating from Republicans, while nearly the same unfavorable from Democrats. While this may not be surprising to many, it is the number of independents which make up the real difference. Independents held her unfavorable by a margin of 48% to 44%, outside the margin of error.
Some could argue that her conduct since has not helped her image. The Thanksgiving interview (where she was filmed with turkeys being beheaded behind her), the Levi Johnston debacle (see Banks, Tyra) and her recent rambling appearance at an Evansville, Indiana right to life group have all hurt her. While many Americans can reinvent themselves (Joe Biden got in big trouble for plagiarizing a stump speech of a member of parliament a couple decades ago), four years is probably not enough time for Palin. Her negatives were her lack of experience, lack of command of facts and her right wing stances. And don't forget the Katie Couric interview, perhaps one of the most damaging interviews in political history. It will not disappear any time soon. All of these alienate the middle, which is where elections are won and lost. She will appear formidable in the Republican primary where appealing to the extremes of the party gain you votes (see this article over at Politico.com). Look for Palin to do well out of the gates in the 2012 contest, but fade quickly in the finish where the middle matters.
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