The World is Coming to an End!

The World Health Organization has raised the Pandemic Level for the Swine Flu Bonanza to FIVE!  Mexico is basically shut down.  North Korea keeps rattling it's saber.  Pakistan is circling the drain.  The U.S. GDP shrank 6.1% in the first quarter.  But what we really can't belive is that Sean Penn and Robin Wright (Penn) are filing for divorce!  What the hell?!?!

Arlen Specter Face Math. More Complicated Than You'd Think

So, the big news yesterday out of Washington, D.C. was that Senator Arlen Specter has switched parties from the Republicans to the Democrats.  Some people are calling him two faced.  But does this really add up?  Specter has always been a fairly moderate senator; he was one of three Republicans to vote for the stimulus bill.  So how do you quantify his face?  Well, I think we can all agree that everyone starts out with one.

Is face really constant?  People lose and gain face all the time.  Their actions change how much face they have.  But this really doesn't help us when you want to analyze Specter's face.  We wanted to know just how "Republican" Specter was.  So we went to GovTrack and decided to look how he compared to your "average" Republican senator.  (We chose senator, not general congressman since one: the senate tends to contain more stable individuals and you don't have nutcases and two: they don't vote on the same things.)  However, there are 40 other Republican senators with 172 votes each from 2009 to add up.  We instead decided to pick John Cornyn of Texas because he seemed really indignant over the Specter switch, he's in what looks to be the center of the Republicans in this chart, and finally he's in charge of winning seats for Republicans in 2010.

When we looked at the votes, Specter differed from Cornyn on 73 of 172 votes in 2009.  So in essence Specter had 57.5% of a Republican face.  When he switched parties, he lost 0.575 face.

But wait!  He gained face with respect to Democrats!  He only lost Republican face.  His 2009 voting record shows he's not with John "Average" Cornyn 42.5% of the time.  So he gained 0.452 Democrat face.  So the new calculation of his face is:

How do we tell what is a Republican Face and what is a Democrat Face?  Well, that sounds much more complicated.  What parts of his face are Democrat and what parts are Republican?  If we were the Democrats, we'd call the best parts, but being not the most attractive man, this is a difficult call.  Each party's face must be some function of the total face so Arlen Specter's face function looks closer to this:

At this point Arlen Specter's face is a differential equation!  Arlen is a very complex man.  Geez, at this point, can't we all agree that Arlen just switched parties because he in the middle and his party is really just a toss up anyway and he's more electable in Pennsylvania as a Democrat?

Cuba: Where GM Automobiles are Still the Only Game in Town

While many things are going on in the world today, from Pakistan circling the drain to Swine Flu, the Obama administration is preparing for informal talks with the Cuban government according to an article in the New York Times.  While Cuba has a history of stopping the conversation before substantive talks, preparations for talks is a sensible thing to do.  Both of the Castro brothers are getting elderly and they will not be around forever.  A thaw in the relations between the countries would be beneficial to all.  A new market would be available for American goods and for Cuba, a new promise of economic prosperity.

While many Cuban Americans oppose improved relations with the two countries, the trade embargo, in place for 47 years, has not worked.  Castro & Co. are still in business and until they die, show no signs of letting go.  As with the Soviet Union, if there is an easing in economic restrictions & social freedoms (See: Perestroika & Glasnost) there will be severe issues with maintaining control over the population.  Which is probably why Castro (Raul and Fidel) have resisted change.

This is an application of what has been dubbed the Obama Doctrine which invovles listening and opening dialogs with other nations in an effort to use "smart power" which is both diplomatic efforts combined with military pressure.  In other words - speak primarily, but remember you still have a stick. 

Swine Flu: Take That Monkey Pox!

In funny illness news, Swine Flu is sweeping across North America.  It's all the rage these days in Mexico and the trend is catching on in the U.S. and Canada.  The marketing machine is already targeting overseas consumers and we've not seen such potential for a global fad since SARS was in style.  You might be asking "how can I get my very own Swine Flu?"  All you have to do is get one of these little guys on the right!  This small critter is as deadly as you can find.  His cute exterior is great packaging for Swine Flu.  The folks at Madison Avenue have done it again.

In an economy hit by a major recession, Big Epidemic has come through again.  Since their last product, Avian Flu, was generally thought of as a bust, this was a must win situation for them.  So far the first reviews have been great and this one really has the potential to go the distance.  This new product is also accessorized.  Giving this one a grade, we say A+!

A Taliban in Pakistan (well, more than one really...)

So, the Taliban is back in vogue in the 'Stan region of the world.  Recently, Pakistan has slowly been succumbing to the Taliban.  They have set up Islamic law in the Swat region of Pakistan and taken over an area only 60 miles from the capitol, Islamabad.  There is a real chance that Pakistan will become a failed state (and some could make the argument that it already is).  In a recent New York Times article, General David Petraeus states that these extremists who have set camp in the border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan are threatening "Pakistan's very existence."

As the Taliban is slowly moving over the country, it is taking advantage of anti-American sentiment and, like it did in Afghanistan, is promising justice and order in the country.  If the Taliban does take control of Pakistan, this will be a very serious issue.  Quite simply, Pakistan has nukes.  Not a lot, but one is enough.  If an extreme group such as the Taliban has control over these weapons, all hell could break loose.  Shipping a nuke overseas and striking another country would cause great destruction and fear and probably start a nuclear war.  The potential targets are many, but the top three, in my best estimation, would be: 1.  The United States, since it was the main aggressor in Afghanistan, forcing them out.  2.  The United Kingdom, a major ally of the U.S. during the Afghanistan war.  3.  India, Kashmir has been a source of tension ever since Great Britain split the countries up in the 40s.

While a nuclear attack on all three countries is devastating, the nuclear fallout will affect not only the human population of the affected region, but food production would be affected in India and maybe even China.  A food shortage in the world's two most populous countries (both of which are nuclear capable and emerging economic giants) will cause chaos which could pull the entire world into conflict.  The bottom line is, Pakistan cannot fail.  The ramifications are too dire.

Signs of the Collapse of Western Civilization

We here at Puggling were perusing The Internets recently and found some very disturbing things.  The downfall of civilization as we know it is coming soon and these are some of the reasons why:

1. People actually care about Spencer and Heidi.  At least enough for MTV to film it.  We don't even know why we are mentioning it.  Oh yeah.  The apocalypse.
2. Glenn Beck.  The dude is crazy.  Like Jack Nicholson in The Shining crazy.  'Nuff said.
3. The Snuggie.  How are these selling? Seriously.  It's a freaking blanket with holes in it.  There is no way someone should ever pay for this.  Nobody ever thought "gee, I love my blanket, but I wish I could wear it like a muumuu."
4. Isiah Thomas got hired to run something basketball related.  He has managed to kill one basketball league, squander the Indiana Pacers best years in decades, made the New York Knicks waste lots of money, and lose a sexual harassment lawsuit.  Good going FIU.
5. Pirates are the number one threat to America.  They have just been laying low for the past 200 years.  The next threat no one will ever expect...
   

So Let Me Get This Straight....

In a recent interview with Sean "The Manatee" Hannity, Dick Cheney attempted to legitimize the use of torture.  He claimed that there are memos out there showing that we gained valuable intelligence from these techniques.  Undoubtably there are memos out there with some scrap of intelligence that was gained.  However, there are other techniques which can be used without torture.  There is an implication that coercive methods helped stop a radiological plot involving Jose Padilla (the American implicated in Al Qaeda activities), but the real danger of an actual "dirty bomb" is minimal due to the short half life of most of the possible contaminants. 

Also, the use of torture at Abu Gharaib has been used as a recruitment tool for terrorists and removed America from the moral high ground which has been a central component of U.S. foreign policy since Woodrow Wilson.  The United States has seen itself as that "City on the Hill," a shining example of how to behave on the world stage.  We view the world through a moral lens, which has often been used to justify involvement in conflicts around the globe.  The United States prosecuted torture as war crimes after World War II.  We agreed to the Geneva Conventions which ban the use of torture.  The issue is not whether or not torture works, but really can the United States participate in this and remain a world leader.  And the answer is no.

And Iran, Iran so far away.... (it's been done before, so sue me)

Iran has announced that it officially is welcoming talks over its nuclear program.  Likely, Iran is looking for gains in exchange for changes in - or even outright abandonment of - their nuclear program.  While complete abandonment of their nuclear program is highly unlikely, suspension of the program, perhaps for increased trade, or maybe normalized relations with the U.S., is probably the goal of U.S. diplomats.  The talks will be among the five United Nations Security Council members, Germany and Iran.

Suspension of the program will face much opposition from both internal and external factors.  Inside Iran, the hardliners would still push for continuation of the program for both the energy and potential weapons gains.  Outside of Iran, Russia has been supplying them with the nuclear material which they are attempting to enrich.  This is a nice revenue source for Russia and Russia is a valuable trading partner with Iran so they do not wish to stop a profitable relationship. 

If the main issue that the U.S. has is the enriching of uranium, then there is a practical solution.  There are heavy water nuclear reactors which do not require enriched uranium as a fuel.  These reactors do not produce as much plutonium (the material used in nuclear weapons) as other reactors.  Many countries have used this type of reactor including Canada, China and India.  However, if the impasse is the very fact that it is a nuclear program, the talks will likely be just that, talks. 

Okay, okay, the real reason for the post:

Earth Day 2009: Go Green, Dammit!

Today is Earth Day.  The one day a year when people are supposed to think about the Earth and human's impact on it.  However, people are more concerned about their wallets.  In good times, people can afford to "go green," but people today don't feel that they can.  There are small steps that people can take: first, use re-usable bags in place of plastic or paper bags.  Each plastic bag takes decades to biodegrade in a landfill (as they are not easily recycled) and paper bags mean more trees gone.  Reusable bags are not expensive either.  This bag at Target is 99 cents and can be used over and over.  Also, compact flourescent lights are a great way to reduce energy consumption by approximately 77% (a 100 watt light equivalent only uses 23 watts).  While these are more expensive (about $4.17 per bulb as opposed to $0.51 per bulb), they do last about 10 times longer and the newer bulbs no longer have the flourescent light glare.

But, the best way to reduce energy usage is to not use the energy in the first place.  When you leave a room - even for only a minute - turn off the lights.  That is a 100% energy savings.  Also, a lot of people keep their computers in "sleep mode" overnight.  Shut it down.  Sleep mode doesn't mean off.  Energy in the United States is cheap.  The national average cost of electricity in the U.S. is 9.64 cents per kilowatt hour (Source: Dept. of Energy).  In Europe, the cheapest electricity is still more than the U.S. average (11.44 cents) and the most expensive is over four times more expensive at 41.34 cents.  To keep our electricity cheap, we need to do what we can to use less of it.  Or else face a wasteland as prophesized by Walter E.

The Palin Issue: Round 2

Sarah Palin is a polarizing person. Many Americans know this. However, she appears not to. She has recently set up a political action committee, SarahPAC, in an apparent move towards presidential candidacy in 2012. In a USA Today/Gallup poll right after the election (the latest data we could find), Sarah Palin had an 83% favorable rating from Republicans, while nearly the same unfavorable from Democrats. While this may not be surprising to many, it is the number of independents which make up the real difference. Independents held her unfavorable by a margin of 48% to 44%, outside the margin of error.

Some could argue that her conduct since has not helped her image. The Thanksgiving interview (where she was filmed with turkeys being beheaded behind her), the Levi Johnston debacle (see Banks, Tyra) and her recent rambling appearance at an Evansville, Indiana right to life group have all hurt her. While many Americans can reinvent themselves (Joe Biden got in big trouble for plagiarizing a stump speech of a member of parliament a couple decades ago), four years is probably not enough time for Palin. Her negatives were her lack of experience, lack of command of facts and her right wing stances. And don't forget the Katie Couric interview, perhaps one of the most damaging interviews in political history. It will not disappear any time soon. All of these alienate the middle, which is where elections are won and lost. She will appear formidable in the Republican primary where appealing to the extremes of the party gain you votes (see this article over at Politico.com). Look for Palin to do well out of the gates in the 2012 contest, but fade quickly in the finish where the middle matters.

Calling Crockett and Tubbs...

According to a recent New York Times article, Baghdad is once again safe enough for people to start doing what people are inclined to do: vice. This is a significant step towards normality. People are feeling safe enough to stay out later at night and go cavorting in parks and bars. In the past, Baghdad was full of cafes and nightlife, much like a classic scene from movie, even during the Saddam Hussein era. This freedom is significant because people had been staying inside due to militias, kidnappings and explosions. Six years in, life is returning to normal: 1980's Miami, however, according to the article, without the drugs... or the cars... or Don Johnson.

Now what? Ninjas?

With all the recent pirate attacks on American ships and even mortar shells being targeted at a congressman's plane, people are up in arms over the issue of piracy. The crew of the Maersk Alabama are asking for the U.S. to do more to combat piracy. According to an article written on MSN.com, pirates collected approximately 18 to 30 million dollars in 2008. Also, pirate attacks are up 11% in 2008, according to the International Maritime Bureau's Piracy Reporting Centre, and we would be willing to bet that much of the increase is due to the worsening global economic situation much in the same way that crime rates increase during poor economic times. This would imply that an overall improvement in the global economy would help to quell some of these pirate attacks. This also would indicate that economic aid in would have a greater effect on the pirate problem than sending patrol boats out.

Since the pirates operate in an estimated 1.4 million square miles off the coast of Somalia, these patrol boats have a vast area to cover. According to the same MSN ariticle, there are approximately 30 warships off of Somalia and that means that each ship must cover approximately 46,000 square miles. However, in March, there were 15 attacks on merchant ships and about 1400 ships passed through the area in that time making the the probability of an attack at 1.07%. While this number might seem low, a 1 in 100 risk of being attacked by pirates is not odds we here would like take.

Now, if these 30 ships were to go to the coast of somalia and patrol the waters near these ports (a delicate task because putting warships off the coast of a sovereign nation tends to be a touchy subject), it would dramatically reduce the amount of area required to cover. A quick look at Google Maps reveals 29 cities which may or may not have a port large enough for a supertanker or merchant ship. This would give about a 1:1 ratio of ships to ports and make the problems more containable.

Teabagging? Seriously?

So, our acquaintances over at Fox News are hyping Teabagging, also known as anti-tax Tea Parties. Other than a Lipton plot to sell lots of tea, this "movement" doesn't make much sense. Except for 1991 and 1992 (when the top tax rate was 31%) today's top tax rate of 35% is the lowest since the 1920's! Now, we're no teabagging experts, but we believe the first instance of this back in 1773 was not overhyped. Taxes, like the saying goes, are as inevitable as death and the amount Americans are paying is very low. In other countries, the tax rates can go up to around 60% (such as Sweden and Denmark). In a recent Gallup poll, 48% of Americans say that the pay "about the right amount in taxes," while only 46% say they pay too much. This is a reversal from most of the past 50 years where a vast majority (about 60%) of Americans feel they pay too much. We just don't see how this is a "movement" that has any real footing.

Run for the hills! The Revenuers!

Tomorrow is Tax Day and this is the time of year many folks are freaking out. Especially this guy. From our friends at mental_floss, here are a couple of interesting tax related tidbits to keep you from freaking out.

1. 5 Tax Laws You Shouldn't Have to Worry About.
2. 9 Big Names Who Lived Above the (Tax) Law.

Don't worry, you have over 24 whole hours left!

Pirates: Now available outside the Caribbean!

With the recent events off the coast of Somalia, piracy seems to be back in style. Our classic interpretation of pirates were actually privateers (e.g. William Kidd, Sir Francis Drake and even the Barbary Pirates), who were state sponsored pirates who attacked other nation's shipping. The recent Somali pirate attacks offer a distinct situation because of the political situation in the country. Due to the fact that Somalia does not have a stable government which cannot effectively control its territory, the solving the piracy issue is significantly more complex. And that is not to say that the degree of difficulty is not still very high.

If Somalia were a stable nation with an effective government, applying diplomatic or economic pressure would push them to prosecute the pirates and eliminate the safe havens where the captured vessels are docked. That is not the case today. Regional warlords have significantly more power than the government and are allowing the ships to be docked in "safe" ports due to the extreme profitability of piracy. A necessary condition for eliminating piracy off the coast of Somalia is a stable state. Due to the fractured nature of Somalia, the duration as a failed state and the large number of warlords vying for power, nation building there would be as difficult as Iraq, if not more so. Economic aid and development would lend support to the government and help to stabilize the region. As people have more opportunity, the motivating factor in piracy is less of a draw. This will take time and a temporary solution will have to be implemented in the interim.

Avoiding the area is not an option because of the high amount of shipping that flows through the area. Containing the piracy issue is, at least for now, a more practical solution while efforts like economic development take hold. The current strategy favored by the pirates is to board a ship and take its crew and contents to a port and hold them for ransom. This means that there is a finite number of places where a ship like a supertanker can be docked. Regular patrols and potentially a multinational force (U.N. or otherwise) could oversee these ports and provide security and order. Without a place to hold the ships, the pirates would be forced to either change tactics or find a different revenue source.

Changing tactics is something that would have to be very closely monitored since there are a wide variety of things that could happen which would be devastating to international shipping. As the "safer" alternatives of docking a ship while waiting for the ransom dry up, desperate pirates could take to more reckless alternatives and desperate people can be very creative.

No Nukes is Good Nukes?

With the recent test launching of a Taepodong-2 intercontinental ballistic missile in North Korea and the recent statements by the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad about welcoming talks with the United States, one begins to wonder why countries pursue nuclear weapons technology. Nuclear weapons have been around for over sixty years and there are only eight countries with confirmed nuclear weapons (nine when you include Israel which does not acknowledge its weapons). During their lifespan, the main uses of nuclear weapons have been as a deterrent or as a bargaining chip. Throughout the Cold War, both the United States and the Soviet Union had enough nuclear weapons to ensure that no matter what happened, each could destroy the other (See: Destruction, Mutually Assured).

Currently, Iran and North Korea are both pursuing nuclear technology (North Korea tested a bomb in 2006 and Iran maintains that its research is peaceful). North Korea has been funneling its very scarce resources toward advancing its nuclear program even though it is dependent on foreign aid. While it is such an economically poor country, why divert efforts toward a struggling nuclear program? One large reason is internal politics. In order to keep control, the regime is trying to maintain very high nationalist sentiments. If their country is internally perceived as among the world leaders in military power, North Koreans will think more highly of their government. While most consider the rocket test a failure (stages two and three failed and the missile did not reach orbit and subsequently fell into the ocean), the North Korean press was excitedly proclaiming that this was a great success. While failing to raise the living standards of its people, the government is creating positive spin in its own press.

Another reason for the test, as advocated by Victor Cha in his article "Pyongbang!", is that Kim Jong Il is in failing health and the the ruling class is stirring up trouble due to the "political fluidity within Pyongyang." Both of these factors are likely playing off of one another in a nasty feedback loop. Due to Kim's failing health, the ruling class is setting itself up for the eventual change in leadership as well as keeping internal pressures at bay.

North Korea is also setting itself up to reap rewards in the international arena by engaging in talks. In general, according to Henry Kissenger's book Diplomacy, talks are a favorite tool used by diplomats to buy time. While North Korea is engaged in talks, the longer it has to negotiate, the stronger its position will be as it will have advanced its nuclear project and it will be more difficult for other nations to take action against it which is why even though its test was a failure, it still was a success for North Korea.

April 1st: Full of Fools

If only this new feature in Gmail was true...